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Tipper Event & Pick Result

James Bartman
 

EPL
Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace
Fri, 27 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Bournemouth

Odds:
1.96 (Betfair)

Pending
Bournemouth bring 4-1-0 form into this clash and they completed the double over Crystal Palace last season. Already without Adam Wharton due to injury, Palace were forced to leave the injured Eberechi Eze out of the squad over the weekend and were thrashed 5-1 by Arsenal. Bournemouth have only suffered two defeats out of twelve as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Crystal Palace have only won two games out of fifteen as the away favourite.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Leicester vs. Wolves
Mon, 23 Dec 2024
1:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.72 (Betfair)

Win
This game features two of the three worst defences in the league. In 16 games, Leicester City have conceded 34 goals while Wolves have conceded an eye-watering 40 times. Offensively, both sides have fared decently. The Foxes have managed 21 goals while Wolves have scored 24. This combination has resulted in high scoring games for both sides. Leicester City’s games have averaged 3.4 total goals this season, which has seen 12 of their 16 games go over 2.5. Wolves have averaged total 4.0 match goals, which has seen 13 of their 16 games go over 2.5.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Brentford vs. Nottm Forest
Sun, 22 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.74 (Unibet)

Loss
Brentford boast the league’s best 7-1-0 home record this season, however they will be playing midweek in the EFL Cup, while Nottingham Forest won’t. I’m also wary of Forest’s 4-2-2 away record. Rather than lean towards a usual Brentford/Over 2.5 goals combo (3.10 at bet365, for those who are interested), I will instead focus on over 2.5. Seven of Brentford’s eight home games this season went over 2.5 goals. Their average total match score of 5.0 at home is the highest in the league. Nottingham Forest’s last four away games went over 2.5 goals and their previous two Premier League visits to Gtech Community Stadium went over 2.5 goals. This fixture resulted in a 3-2 win for Brentford last season.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
Mon, 16 Dec 2024
1:00 AM

Correct Score:
1-1

Odds:
8.00 (bet365)

Loss
Despite various changes of managers and fortunes over the years, six of the last ten meetings between these two rivals resulted in a 1-1 final score. Looking at more recent data, four of their last six meetings resulted in a 1-1 stalemate.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Liverpool vs. Fulham
Sun, 15 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Total Goals:
Under 2.5

Odds:
3.00 (Unibet)

Loss
There’s value at these odds. Liverpool’s average total goals at home this season is 2.3. This has seen 4 of their 7 home games go under 2.5 goals. Fulham have averaged 2.1 total goals away from home this season, which is the second lowest average in the league. This has seen 6 of their 7 away games go under 2.5 goals. Liverpool will be backing up after their midweek UEFA Champions League clash away against Girona, so they won’t be at peak freshness for this fixture.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Newcastle vs. Leicester
Sun, 15 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.47 (Unibet)

Win
Leicester City have averaged 4.0 total goals away from home this season, which is the second most in the league. This has seen 6 of their 7 away games go over 2.5 goals. Both of Leicester City’s games under new manager Ruud van Nistelrooy have gone over 3.5 goals. Newcastle’s last two games each saw six total goals.

James Bartman
 

EPL
West Ham vs. Wolves
Tue, 10 Dec 2024
7:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.67 (bet365)

Win
This tip is based on the assumption that neither manager has lost his job between now and kickoff! Wolves have conceded an eye-watering 36 goals in 14 games this season, which is the most in the league by a 6-goal margin. Their porous defence has contributed heavily to the fact that ten of their last eleven games went over 2.5 goals. From an entertainment perspective Wolves are good value for money. Their horrific away defence is paired with the fact that only Liverpool and Chelsea have scored more away goals than Wolves this season. West Ham incredibly only scored once in their 1-3 defeat to Leicester City in midweek. They managed 31 shots in that game and a similar statistic against this Wolves defence will result in goals aplenty. Wolverhampton’s last five away games went over the total and their last three games went over 3.5 goals. Wolves’ average total score away from home this season is 4.1, which is the highest in the league. West Ham have averaged 3.2 average total goals at home this season, a statistic that is driven by the fact that they have conceded 15 goals in their 7 home fixtures. Only Wolves and Southampton have conceded more home goals than West Ham this season.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Newcastle vs. Liverpool
Thu, 5 Dec 2024
6:30 AM

Head-to-head:
Liverpool

Odds:
1.81 (Unibet)

Loss
Newcastle have had their ups and downs this season and they’re currently in a slump. They fell 0-2 at home to the out of sorts West Ham and they were lucky to get a 1-1 draw with Palace over the weekend, given the Magpies managed just 1 shot and 0 shots on target. Liverpool, meanwhile, have won 18 of 20 games under new manager Arne Slot. Their last two wins over Real Madrid and Man City were arguably their most impressive performances. Liverpool have won six consecutive league fixtures against Newcastle.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Ipswich vs. Crystal Palace
Wed, 4 Dec 2024
6:30 AM

Asian Handicap:
Ipswich +0.5

Odds:
1.66 (Betfair)

Loss
Ipswich are winless (0-4-2) at home this season, while Crystal Palace are winless (0-3-3) away from home. There is a high chance of a draw, but I will lean towards Ipswich in the Asian Handicap, because even with Eze back from injury, Palace continue to struggle badly to convert their chances. They aren’t helped by the continued injury absence of Adam Wharton.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Wolves vs. Bournemouth
Sun, 1 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.69 (Betfair)

Win
Wolverhampton have conceded an eye-watering 28 goals in 12 games this season, however they have managed to score 20 as well – only one less than Arsenal. This combination has resulted in high scoring games in which both sides have scored with regularity. Wolverhampton’s average total goals per game this season is 4.0, which is the highest in the league. They now take on Bournemouth, who have averaged 3.0 goals away from home this campaign. Both teams scored in ten of Wolverhampton’s last 11 league games and ten of those games went over 2.5 goals. Four of their last six games went over 3.5 goals. Both teams scored in Bournemouth’s last four games and their last three games went over 2.5 goals.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle
Sun, 1 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Asian Handicap:
Newcastle +0.5

Odds:
1.50 (Betfair)

Win
This is primarily a bet against Crystal Palace, who have failed to win 11 of their 12 games this season. The Eagles have gone 2-2-5 as the home underdog over the last twelve months. Palace remain without Eddie Nketiah and Adam Wharton, while Eberechi Eze is rated as a 50% chance of playing at the time of writing. Daichi Kamada is still suspended. Newcastle suffered an upset defeat to West Ham last week, however they had a superior xG in that game and the Magpies registered 18 shots on goal. Prior to that, Newcastle had beaten Arsenal and Nottingham Forest.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Brentford vs. Leicester
Sun, 1 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.62 (Betfair)

Win
Brentford’s last three home games resulted in 5-3, 4-3 and 3-2 scorelines. The Bees have the highest average home total score in the league this season, at 4.8. Five of Leicester City’s six away games this season went over 2.5 goals. The Foxes have averaged 3.8 total goals away from home this season, which is the second highest in the league.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Brighton vs. Southampton
Sat, 30 Nov 2024
7:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Brighton

Odds:
1.44 (Betfair)

Loss
Brighton have Pedro back from injury, which is notable. He was involved in both of Brighton’s goals last week in their win over Bournemouth. The round before that, Pedro was involved in both goals in their win over Man City. The Seagulls have now gone 4-2-0 in games this season in which Pedro has played. Southampton, meanwhile, have made a 1-1-10 start to the season. The Saints have gone 0-0-6 away from home with a -10 goal difference on their travels.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Newcastle vs. West Ham
Tue, 26 Nov 2024
7:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Newcastle

Odds:
1.52 (Unibet)

Loss
Newcastle suffered through a five-game winless run but they have found their footing in recent weeks. The Magpies defeated Arsenal 1-0 at home and then ended Nottingham Forest’s impressive run with a 3-1 away win. West Ham, in contrast, limp into this fixture on the back of a 3-0 away defeat to Nottingham Forest and a poor 0-0 home draw with Everton. It took the Hammers 44 minutes to register a shot against the Toffees. West Ham’s last two away games resulted in defeats by a combined 7 goals to 1.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Crystal Palace vs. Fulham
Sun, 10 Nov 2024
2:00 AM

Asian Handicap:
Fulham +0.5

Odds:
1.59 (Betfair)

Win
Crystal Palace remain without the injured Eze and Wharton - arguably their two best players. They have failed to beat Fulham in their last five attempts, with four of those meetings resulting in a stalemate. Fulham have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 9 games, while Palace have only managed 1 win in their opening 10 games.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Southampton vs. Everton
Sun, 3 Nov 2024
2:00 AM

Asian Handicap:
Everton +0.5

Odds:
1.56 (Betfair)

Loss
Everton were poor against Fulham last week by their standards, but they still had enough quality to pick up a draw. The Toffees are now unbeaten in five games. Southampton have made a winless 0-1-8 to the season. Everton have gone 2-1-1 as the away favourite over the last twelve months. Southampton will be backing up after playing in the EFL Cup midweek, while Everton are already out of that competition. The Toffess have key defender Jarrad Branthwaite back from injury.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham
Mon, 28 Oct 2024
1:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Tottenham

Odds:
1.88 (Betfair)

Loss
Crystal Palace have made a 0-3-5 start to the season. They have lost three consecutive games and they scored just once in those three defeats. Palace have gone 1-2-4 as the home underdog over the last twelve months and they have lost five consecutive games against Spurs. Since Palace were promoted, Tottenham have gone 17-3-2 as the favourite against the Eagles. Spurs have scored twelve goals across their last four games.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Nottm Forest vs. Crystal Palace
Tue, 22 Oct 2024
6:00 AM

Asian Handicap:
Nottingham Forest +0.5

Odds:
1.40 (bet365)

Win
Crystal Palace have made a winless 0-3-4 start to the season and they have a 0-3-1 record against Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Forest have only lost one of their seven games so far this season. They have only lost one of six games as the home favourite over the last twelve months. Palace have gone 1-6-6 as the away underdog over the same period.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool
Sat, 5 Oct 2024
9:30 PM

Head-to-head:
Liverpool

Odds:
1.54 (Betfair)

Win
Crystal Palace have made a 0-3-3 start to the season as they continue to struggle without the departed Michael Olise. Liverpool, meanwhile, have made a 5-0-1 start under new manager Arne Slot. Impressively, Liverpool conceded just two goals in those six games. The Reds didn’t play well last week but they still managed to win away against Wolverhampton, so despite having to back up after playing midweek against Bologna, I’m happy to back Liverpool in this fixture. The Reds have gone 8-2-1 at Selhurst Park since Palace were promoted.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Newcastle vs. Man City
Sat, 28 Sep 2024
9:30 PM

Head-to-head:
Man City

Odds:
1.66 (Betfair)

Loss
Newcastle have been getting positive results without playing well this season, but their luck ran out last week when they fell 1-3 away to Fulham. Newcastle have lost three in a row to Manchester City. They have also lost three of their last four home games against the Sky Blues. Looking back at longer-term data, Newcastle have a 1-3-9 record in their last thirteen games as the home underdog against City. Spanning this season and the last, Man City bring 13-1-0 form into this fixture. They have won seven consecutive away games and all of those wins were by 2+ goal margins.
Time zone: Australia/Sydney (change)
 

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