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Tipper Event & Pick Result

James Bartman
 

EPL
Leicester vs. Liverpool
Mon, 21 Apr 2025
1:30 AM

Line/Handicap:
Liverpool -1.5

Odds:
1.67 (bet365)

Pending
Leicester City became the first team in English football history to lose eight home league games in a row without scoring. All eight defeats were by 2+ goal margins and their last three home defeats were by 3+ margins. They now host a Liverpool side that is within touching distance of a Premier League title. Eight of Liverpool’s eleven away wins over the last twelve months were by 2+ goal margins.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Newcastle vs. Man Utd
Mon, 14 Apr 2025
1:30 AM

Head-to-head:
Newcastle

Odds:
1.75 (bet365)

Win
The crucial aspect of this fixture is it sits in between Manchester United’s Europa League quarter-final fixtures against Lyon. United languish in 13th place on the table, so the only way they can play European football next season is through success in the Europa League. Newcastle, meanwhile, sit 5th and are well in the fight for a Champions League spot. The hosts have far more at stake in this fixture than the visitors for this reason. Newcastle have gone 8-1-4 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and in recent seasons they have gone 2-0-0 as the home favourite against Man Utd. United lost their two most recent visits to St. James’ Park and both defeats were to nil. Newcastle bring a three-game winning streak into this clash and they only conceded one goal across those games. They raced out to a 3-0 halftime lead against Leicester City in their previous fixture. This gave them the luxury of substituting Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes, Murphy and Alexander Isak early on, which has kept them fresh for this fixture. Man Utd’s last three defeats were to nil and they failed to score in their last two games. Newcastle defeated United 2-0 at Old Trafford earlier in the season.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Leicester vs. Newcastle
Tue, 8 Apr 2025
5:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Newcastle

Odds:
1.48 (bet365)

Win
This is simply a bet against the hosts. Leicester City have lost seven consecutive home games. All seven defeats were by 2+ goal margins the Foxes failed to score a single goal across those matches. Leicester City registered an expected goals metric of just 0.02 against Man City in midweek. Newcastle have already beaten the Foxes 4-0 this season. Only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest have registered more away wins than Newcastle this season.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Ipswich vs. Nottm Forest
Sun, 16 Mar 2025
2:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Nottingham Forest

Odds:
2.05 (betr)

Win
Ipswich have lost seven of their last eight games. They have gone 3-8-17 all season, which equates to a defeat frequency of 60.7%. It’s actually worse at home, where they have a defeat frequency of 64.3%. Ipswich have only recorded one home win (1-4-9 record) all season. The Tractor Boys have lost four home games in a row, and this includes a 2-1 defeat to 20th placed Southampton. Nottingham Forest have lost their last three away games, however they were against much tougher opponents. Forest have gone 6-0-0 away from home this season against sides that are currently in the bottom half of the table. Only league-leaders Liverpool have won more league games than Forest this season. Nottingham Forest have only lost one game out of 16 as the favourite this season. They kept clean sheets in their last two games, which were against Arsenal and Man City.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Brentford vs. Aston Villa
Sun, 9 Mar 2025
4:30 AM

Asian Handicap:
Brentford +0.5

Odds:
1.48 (Betfair)

Loss
Aston Villa will be backing up after playing away against Club Brugge in the UEFA Champions League. They have only won one of their last seven Premier League games. Brentford have gone 7-4-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Liverpool vs. Newcastle
Thu, 27 Feb 2025
7:15 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.49 (Betfair)

Loss
Three of Newcastle's last five opponents scored 3+ goals and four of the last five scored 2+. Liverpool’s last five home games went over 2.5 goals while Newcastle’s last seven games went over 2.5. The last three meetings between Liverpool and Newcastle went over 2.5 goals and their last two meetings each saw six total goals.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Leicester vs. Brentford
Sat, 22 Feb 2025
7:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Brentford

Odds:
2.05 (betr)

Win
Leicester City bring 1-0-9 form into this game. Eight of those nine defeats were by 2+ goal margins. The Foxes have gone 2-3-8 at home this season and they have lost five consecutive home fixtures. Brentford bring a three-game winning streak away from home into this clash.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Southampton vs. Bournemouth
Sun, 16 Feb 2025
2:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Bournemouth

Odds:
1.60 (bet365)

Win
Southampton bring 1-1-9 form into this game. They have gone 0-0-7 as the home underdog this season. Bournemouth have gone 5-0-2 as the away favourite over the last twelve months.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Nottm Forest vs. Brighton
Sat, 1 Feb 2025
11:30 PM

Asian Handicap:
Nottingham Forest +0.5

Odds:
1.50 (Betfair)

Win
Both teams enter this game on the back of disappointing results. Forest’s heavy away defeat to Bournemouth ended an eight-game (7-1-0) unbeaten run, while Brighton’s home defeat to Everton ended a six-game (2-4-0) unbeaten streak. I will take Forest at the +0.5 handicap in this fixture because they have gone 7-4-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and they already drew Brighton at Amex Stadium earlier in the season. Brighton’ are a tough nut to defeat, but they haven’t won frequently of late. The Seagulls have gone 2-6-3 in their last eleven games.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Southampton vs. Newcastle
Sun, 26 Jan 2025
2:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Newcastle

Odds:
1.44 (bet365)

Win
Newcastle’s nine-game winning streak in all competitions came to an end last week, but over the last twelve months they boast a better record on the back of a defeat (7-2-1) than on the back of a win (10-5-5). Southampton have gone 0-0-6 as the home underdog this season. Their last three opponents all scored 3+ goals.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Nottm Forest vs. Southampton
Mon, 20 Jan 2025
1:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Nottingham Forest

Odds:
1.42 (bet365)

Win
Nottingham Forest bring 6-1-0 form into this clash. The only team they failed to beat during that run was league-leaders Liverpool. Southampton haven’t played their midweek fixture away against Man Utd at the time of writing, but prior to that they were in 0-2-8 form. Forest’s midweek game took place two days before Southampton’s, so they should be the fresher of the two sides. Southampton (prior to the United game) have gone 0-2-8 away from home this season.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Leicester vs. Fulham
Sun, 19 Jan 2025
2:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Fulham

Odds:
2.02 (Betfair)

Win
This is simply a bet against Leicester City, who have lost six consecutive games. They only scored two goals across those six defeats. The appointment of Ruud van Nistelrooy as manager is currently not working out at all. Was it a knee-jerk reaction to his interim role at Man Utd?

James Bartman
 

EPL
Everton vs. Aston Villa
Thu, 16 Jan 2025
6:30 AM

Total Goals:
Under 2.5

Odds:
1.88 (Unibet)

Win
Eleven of Everton’s last thirteen games went under 2.5 goals. Seven of those games went under 1.5 and five ended goalless. Aston Villa bring poor away form into this clash. The Villans have lost five consecutive away games and this is largely driven by the fact that they only scored two goals across those five defeats. Aston Villa’s last three visits to Goodison Park went under 2.5 goals and their game last season resulted in a goalless draw.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Bournemouth vs. Everton
Sun, 5 Jan 2025
2:00 AM

Total Goals:
Under 2.5

Odds:
2.00 (bet365)

Win
Everton continue to struggle to score goals, but they are well organised defensively and they boast an excellent goalkeeper. This combination has seen ten of their last twelve games go under 2.5. goals. Bournemouth’s average total score at home this season is just 2.0, which is the second lowest in the league. This has seen six of their nine home fixtures go under 2.5 goals.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Tottenham vs. Newcastle
Sat, 4 Jan 2025
11:30 PM

Head-to-head:
Newcastle

Odds:
2.28 (Unibet)

Win
Tottenham bring 1-1-4 form into this game, which is largely due to their porous, injury-hit defence. Newcastle, meanwhile, have won four in a row by a combined 13 goals to nil. Tottenham have gone 0-0-5 as the home underdog over the last twelve months. Spurs have been generous hosts over the festive period. Five of the last six visitors to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium scored at least twice. Those 2+ goal-scoring visitors include Ipswich and Wolverhampton.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Ipswich vs. Chelsea
Tue, 31 Dec 2024
6:45 AM

Head-to-head:
Chelsea

Odds:
1.42 (bet365)

Loss
Chelsea have one extra day to prepare for this game than Ipswich. The Blues suffered defeat to Fulham last round, but over the last twelve months they boast a better record (3-1-1) on the back of a defeat than they do on the back of a win (11-7-3). Chelsea have gone 9-4-0 as the away favourite over the last twelve months. Ipswich have lost their last three home games and they only managed one goal in that stretch.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace
Fri, 27 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Head-to-head:
Bournemouth

Odds:
1.96 (Betfair)

Loss
Bournemouth bring 4-1-0 form into this clash and they completed the double over Crystal Palace last season. Already without Adam Wharton due to injury, Palace were forced to leave the injured Eberechi Eze out of the squad over the weekend and were thrashed 5-1 by Arsenal. Bournemouth have only suffered two defeats out of twelve as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Crystal Palace have only won two games out of fifteen as the away favourite.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Leicester vs. Wolves
Mon, 23 Dec 2024
1:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.72 (Betfair)

Win
This game features two of the three worst defences in the league. In 16 games, Leicester City have conceded 34 goals while Wolves have conceded an eye-watering 40 times. Offensively, both sides have fared decently. The Foxes have managed 21 goals while Wolves have scored 24. This combination has resulted in high scoring games for both sides. Leicester City’s games have averaged 3.4 total goals this season, which has seen 12 of their 16 games go over 2.5. Wolves have averaged total 4.0 match goals, which has seen 13 of their 16 games go over 2.5.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Brentford vs. Nottm Forest
Sun, 22 Dec 2024
2:00 AM

Total Goals:
Over 2.5

Odds:
1.74 (Unibet)

Loss
Brentford boast the league’s best 7-1-0 home record this season, however they will be playing midweek in the EFL Cup, while Nottingham Forest won’t. I’m also wary of Forest’s 4-2-2 away record. Rather than lean towards a usual Brentford/Over 2.5 goals combo (3.10 at bet365, for those who are interested), I will instead focus on over 2.5. Seven of Brentford’s eight home games this season went over 2.5 goals. Their average total match score of 5.0 at home is the highest in the league. Nottingham Forest’s last four away games went over 2.5 goals and their previous two Premier League visits to Gtech Community Stadium went over 2.5 goals. This fixture resulted in a 3-2 win for Brentford last season.

James Bartman
 

EPL
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
Mon, 16 Dec 2024
1:00 AM

Correct Score:
1-1

Odds:
8.00 (bet365)

Loss
Despite various changes of managers and fortunes over the years, six of the last ten meetings between these two rivals resulted in a 1-1 final score. Looking at more recent data, four of their last six meetings resulted in a 1-1 stalemate.
Time zone: Australia/Sydney (change)
 
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